When Chaos Erupts…

… don’t be a dumbass.

NOTE: This isn’t specifically about Mexico. Mexico is an illustration of the concepts at hand.

Typically, my advice for traveling in Mexico is “don’t mess with the cartels and they won’t mess with you.” Generally people are far more worried than is warranted. I’m happy to reassure people that traveling in Mexico is typically very safe. I cannot stress enough how much I love Mexico.

However, we cannot be completely oblivious about things like politics, protests, organized crime etc. As I write this, Mexico is going through what may be a defining moment in the conflict between government and cartels. Cartel leader El Mencho was killed by the Mexican army and the cartels are responding with what seems to be a very organized demonstration, lighting public buses on fire, blocking roads, and closing down areas in several cities.

It’s a very dynamic situation. Yet in myriad travel groups I am part of, people are asking things like “I have tickets for the Monarch Sanctuary tomorrow, can I still go?”

My friends, that is dumbassery.

Unfortunately, it is also human nature. Once we attach ourselves to a plan, particularly when we’ve already spent money, it can be very hard to detach from that plan if the conditions change.

So, what should you do if your environment heats up?

Let’s start with the things you should probably already be doing for most international trips.

• Make sure you have cash in small denominations - not all in one spot

• Have enough drinkable water on hand for a couple of days - just grab a couple of gallons for your room

• Screenshot any cloud hosted info (emails, confirmations, etc) including your hotel address. Take a pic of your passport in case it gets lost in the shuffle

• Follow local news sources for the area you’re traveling in

• Travel with high capacity power banks for your devices and keep them charged (I travel with two of THESE)

• If you’re a U.S. citizen, enroll in STEP, the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program. It takes a few minutes and it puts your name, contact information, and location in the system so the embassy or consulate can send you targeted alerts and potentially reach you during a crisis.

• Make sure someone at home knows exactly which city, which neighborhood, and which hotel you’re in. Specifics matter. Check in with that person at regular intervals.

So… you did all those things and something happened - cartel violence, earthquake, hurricane, flooding, mud slides… any number of events. Now it’s time to decide. Are you bugging in or bugging out?

BUGGING IN

Bug in means you stay put. When instability hits, your brain wants to do something. Movement feels like control. But in many cases, restraint is control. Staying in a secure place with a plan and a timeline for reassessment is not passive. It is strategic.

This is often the smarter move in many situations, including cartel-related instability. Retaliation or post-operation chaos tends to show up on highways, bridges, transit corridors, and major intersections; roadblocks, vehicle fires, traffic stoppages.

Movement often increases risk. If you are in a reasonably secure lodging with drinkable water and hopefully power, staying put for 24 to 48 hours can dramatically reduce your risk exposure.

If you’re bugged in, you need to be prepared to bug out at a moment’s notice. Be sensible about your stuff. If you need to move quickly, be prepared to abandon a suitcase of clothing and souvenirs. Prioritize what you NEED and forget the rest.

BUGGING OUT

Bug out means relocating. This is appropriate if you are near a known hotspot, government complex, protest zone, or if your specific neighborhood is becoming a focal point. Do not bug out impulsively. Action is not necessarily safer than staying put.

Have 2-3 fallback plans in mind. If the route to the airport/embassy/Hilton is blocked, what are your plans B and C? Check the traffic as shown on navigation apps to see if routes are open or if roadblocks are likely.

Move in daylight. Avoid crowds of rubberneckers. Do not go to the airport “just to see” if anything is operating. If flights are disrupted, remember that the airport can be calm while the roads to it are not. Sometimes the safer move is to wait. Sometimes it is to reposition to a different city first and then fly. Each situation is different. The principle is the same: reduce exposure, increase options.

Information discipline becomes critical. In unstable moments, social media explodes with half-truths and recycled clips. Look for official local civil protection updates, your embassy’s alerts, and information from your hotel staff, who often know which streets are actually functioning. Assume that viral posts without timestamps or specific locations are noise.

REMEMBER

Most travel instability is short-lived and localized. Cartel leadership changes, political arrests, even bursts of unrest often flare intensely and then narrow quickly. Your goal is to be a small, quiet, low-profile presence who is easy to contact and hard to strand.

Like me, you can love Mexico. You can defend Mexico. You can roll your eyes at overblown headlines. And you can still acknowledge that when buses are on fire and highways are blocked, maybe today is not Monarch Butterfly Day.

Don’t be a dumbass.